Report Compiled: 2020-05-14

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: ecfcb52 Max Data Date: 2020-05-13

NYT Repo Commit: c95c96f Max Data Date: 2020-05-13

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-24 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 663.5756 1106.9829 2002.2017
2020-06-24 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 667.6145 1041.9770 2056.9174
2020-06-24 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1265.4095 1911.8659 2985.9954
2020-06-24 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 734.2180 1515.7039 4211.4035
2020-06-24 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 619.2668 1230.8625 2630.6758
2020-06-24 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 744.9177 1675.1386 4604.9720
2020-06-24 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 1378.9930 1988.7453 3142.1159
2020-06-24 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 904.0766 2220.7895 5215.4985
2020-06-24 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 605.4603 857.5013 1457.7443
2020-06-24 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 557.8051 868.2023 2129.1065
2020-06-24 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 1244.9630 1768.6029 2584.5460
2020-06-24 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 818.7072 1553.6193 6178.8080
2020-06-24 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 522.6169 829.2373 1414.0526
2020-06-24 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 518.9721 746.5787 1257.5187
2020-06-24 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 1124.2094 1636.4142 2463.3525
2020-06-24 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 755.1944 1604.6500 4288.4715
2020-05-28 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 380.9563 493.8552 662.2710
2020-05-28 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 428.1138 544.1464 684.2412
2020-05-28 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 481.0649 588.2396 699.6192
2020-05-28 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 443.1620 568.1657 724.7652